After six long weeks of strike, the UAW and Ford have finally reached a tentative agreement. At the cost of billions of dollars to the economy and thousands of jobs, the agreement must have been something special. 

Overall, the highlights of the agreement with the UAW are:

• A 25% pay increase over the next three years. 
• The removal of wage tiers between employees.
• The restoration of cost of living adjustments. 
• Ending temporary status for current Ford employees.
• Five weeks of paid vacation with Juneteenth as an added holiday.
• Increased benefits for retirees.
• The right to strike over plant closures. 
• The potential for two of Ford’s electric vehicle joint ventures to be unionized at some point in the future and current UAW members transferred there retaining their current benefits. 

Sounds impressive? Not so fast, a preliminary analysis of the key points in the agreement touted by the UAW shows that the tentative deal isn’t overwhelmingly different from what was offered on September 12, before the strike commenced.

On September 12, Ford sent the UAW an offer to provide:

• A 20% wage hike over the next four years. 
• The removal of wage tiers between employees.
• The restoration of cost of living adjustments. 
• Ending temporary status for current Ford employees.
• Five weeks of paid vacation with Juneteenth as an added holiday. 
• Increased progression for retirement savings. 

Moreover, the UAW failed at some of their signature objectives. The UAW did not achieve the unionization of electric vehicle joint ventures, instead settling for commitments that just two of Ford’s many planned joint ventures would be unionized at some point in the future. Nor did the union gain a four-day work week, the restoration of traditional pensions, or the Working Family Protection Program. Full details of the union’s deals with GM and Stellantis haven’t been released yet, but they aren’t expected to differ much from the Ford agreement. 

When Ford offered UAW president Shawn Fain a 20% pay raise, he blasted this offer as unacceptable. He called for a 40% pay raise, saying his members were “worth that and more.” 

Now, Fain is proudly trumpeting a 25% pay raise. We guess it took him six weeks, thousands of lost jobs, and roughly $10 billion worth of damage to the economy to figure out that he needed to be realistic if he wanted to have any autoworkers left to represent.